Passage outlook44-1
BillC-8Govt · majority
Likelyto pass
UnlikelyContestedLikelyNear-certain
✓ method shown2,162-bill base
Calibrated forecasting · first in Canada
Forecast whether a bill passes — and read the method behind it.
Clarion grades each federal bill with a passage outlook built from the parliamentary record: base rates from 2,162 bills across six completed parliamentary sessions, adjusted for how long the bill has sat without progress. The output is an honest probability band — near-certain, likely, contested, unlikely — not a precise number we can't defend. Alongside it sit two descriptive analytics: lobbying-momentum and co-lobbying.
Calibrated forecasting also ships in the US (FiscalNote, Legis1/Apogee). Clarion is the first to do it for Canada. Page, the Canadian incumbent, ships no forecasting at all.
How the outlook reads
A band, not a false decimal.
Each bill lands in one of four zones. The list view shows the band; the bill detail shows a coarser range and the method. We never put a 73.4% on a bill — the honest unit is a calibrated band.
→Bill C-8 · government bill, third reading, majority standing → likely to pass.
- Unlikely
- Contested
- Likely
- Near-certain
How it works
Three inputs, computed from the record.
None of this is guesswork. The outlook is a survival model fit to completed parliamentary sessions, then adjusted for the time a bill has spent stalled.
Base rates01
Pass rates from 2,162 bills in completed sessions.
Every bill in six completed parliamentary sessions (sourced from LEGISinfo), bucketed by bill TYPE (government vs. private member's, Commons vs. Senate) × government STANDING (majority / minority) × the furthest STAGE it reached at least. Each bucket gets a Wilson-interval pass rate — a confidence interval, so thin buckets read as uncertain rather than overconfident.
Dwell-time decay02
Bills that stall get penalized.
A bill that has sat at one stage for months is less likely to pass than the bucket average. The model applies a dwell-time decay measured against how long bills at that stage historically took — the longer it sits without progress, the lower the outlook drops.
PMB flag03
Private members' bills carry a Royal-Recommendation flag.
A private member's bill that needs a Royal Recommendation it doesn't have faces a hard structural ceiling. The model flags it so the outlook reflects the real constraint, not just the stage it reached.
The band04
Four calibrated zones, with the method shown.
The combined estimate maps to near-certain, likely, contested, or unlikely. The bills list shows the band inline; the bill detail shows the coarser range and a plain-language note on how it was computed. Read it, don't just trust it.
What it is — and isn't
A probability, not a promise.
A band with a confidence interval.
Wilson intervals mean a thin bucket reads as uncertain. The outlook is a calibrated probability, never a guarantee — Parliament can prorogue, an election can drop, a government can change its mind.
Federal only, today.
The model is fit to federal parliamentary sessions. Provincial passage forecasting is in development, not yet live. We say so on every provincial bill rather than pretend.
The method is on the page.
Every outlook states what it was computed from — the buckets, the dwell-time penalty, the flag. If you can't see the reasoning, you can't trust the number. So we show it.
First in Canada, not the world.
Calibrated legislative forecasting already exists in the US. Clarion is the first to bring it to Canadian bills — and the only Canadian platform that does.
Why it matters
Spend your week on the files that will actually move.
A GR team can't work fifty bills with equal attention. The outlook tells you which ones are worth a brief, a meeting, or a coalition — and which are theatre.
Triage01
Prioritize the order paper.
Sort your watched bills by passage outlook and put your hours where the probability — and your client's exposure — is highest.
Timing02
Know when a stalled bill is dying.
The dwell-time penalty makes a quietly-stalling bill visible before it's officially dead, so you stop spending on a file that has stopped moving.
Credibility03
Brief with a method you can defend.
Walk into the room with a number and the reasoning behind it. A calibrated band beats a confident guess every time someone senior asks "how do you know?"
See the outlook on a real bill.
Start free and open any federal bill — the passage band, the stage, and the method are on the screen. No demo gate to see how it's computed.